I have yet to find a good place considering the major statewide races in Tennessee and Pennsylvania in 2008 and 2010. These are the two states in whose politics I am most interested. So, I have decided to take it into my own hands and do the looking into on these races. I am looking at the U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial races.
PENNSYLVANIA ~ U.S. Senate 2010
Incumbent Republican (in name only) Senator Arlen Specter will run for another term, despite being 80 in 2010. He will have five terms under his belt and would run for a sixth. He is considered a RINO (Republican In Name Only), and with good reason-he is liberal on most issues.
Specter received a challenge in 2004 when then-Congressman Pat Toomey gave him a primary challenge in the GOP race. Specter barely hung on, and won by only 1.7 percent.
Specter will probably receive another primary challenge, but no major news is in on possible opponents. On the Democrats' side, Governor Ed Rendell is considered to be a good contender. However, Rendell has not been moving strongly in the direction of a run, so a run may not be in the works. Another possible candidate is Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, from Jenkintown. Pennsylvania has other high-profile Dems, but other strong names have yet to surface.
PENNSYLVANIA ~ Governor 2010
Current Democratic Governor Ed Rendell will be forced to retire under term limits. Some consider him to be jockeying for a cabinet position if a Democrat wins the Presidential election in 2008, likely Energy Secretary. If that would be the case, Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll would likely fill out the rest of his term. Knoll would be 80 at the time of the next election, so she probably won't seek a full term, regardless of whether Rendell moves on with an elected career or not. That would set up a wide-open race.
On the Republican side, a number of potential names are popping up. The three most exciting names are Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett, former Congressman Pat Toomey, and former Senator Rick Santorum. Other names include: House Speaker Dennis M. O'Brien, 2006 candidate Lynn Swann, former Lt. Governor Bill Scranton and former Congresswoman Melissa Hart.
For the Dems, a few names are coming up. The interesting thing is that many of them are not well known. They are "rising stars" for the most part. Leading the list is former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer and former Lt. Governor Mark Singel. Other names include rising star legislator Josh Shapiro, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato, State Auditor General Jack Wagner and Lehigh County Chief Executive Don Cunningham.
To put this into more perspective, we have to look at the primary basics of Pennsylvania politics. First, Pennsylvania is not really a Democratic stronghold. It is a battleground state that seems to lean Democratic. The Dem holds are Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Everywhere else in the state - the central and northern areas - are conservative and primarily Republican holds. This area is known as the "Republican T", or "Pennsyltucky". These areas seem to pretty much balance off. However, the voter makeup gives a slight edge to the Dems. Here is the statewide party registration in 2006:
Democratic
3,900,685
47.7%
Republican
3,300,894
40.3%
Other
981,297
12.0%
To put it another way, while the state has voted for the Democratic nominee for President in eight of the past 12 elections, the Congressional makeup has been majority Republican, and Bob Casey Jr.'s victory in November was only the first Democratic U.S. Senator to win a full term since Joseph Clark won a close re-election battle in 1962. In Presidential elections, Gore took the state by only 4 percent in 2000, while Kerry won the "Keystone State" by only 2 percent. Pennsylvania is up for grabs!
From the way things look now, the Republican nominee should have a slight edge if he is Corbett, Toomey or Santorum. If another candidate wins the primary, the race should still be up for grabs, depending on who the Dems nominate. Right now the strongest potential Dem candidate should be Hafer. Of course, someone else could always pop into the consideration, but I think these potential candidates are good shots at being candidates. For the Republicans, I think Santorum and Swann are less likely. These two may pursue other forms of public service. Santorum may consider being a part of a future Presidential administration, while Swann is reportedly looking into a run for Congress in 2008. It is also understood that Santorum is planning on spending more time in his residence in Virginia, which was a serious blow in his 2006 U.S. Senate race.
This race is sure to be an exciting one to follow, and it will likely be a closely-watched race nationwide in 2010. For more, click this link.
TENNESSEE ~ U.S. Senate 2008
Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander is running again to hold on to his seat. He is well respected in Tennessee as a former Governor and former President of the University of Tennessee. He, also, served as Secretary of Education under President George H.W. Bush and was an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican nomination of President of the United States in 1996 and 2000.
Alexander first ran for the Senate in 2002 to fill the retiring Fred Thompson's seat. Thompson is now a likely candidate for President in 2008. Alexander beat then-Congressman Ed Bryant in the GOP primary 54 percent to 43 percent. Alexander won the seat over Democrat Bob Clement 54 percent to 44 percent.
After the 2006 elections, Alexander ran for the position of Senate Minority Whip. He was the early favorite, but Mississippi Senator Trent Lott suddenly jumped in and won a close one over Alexander by a 25-24 vote by fellow GOP senators.
Alexander should have slight GOP primary opposition at best, as he is so well liked in Tennessee. No formidable GOP names are likely to run against Lamar.
Democratic opposition is unsure right now. A popular name that arises is former Congressman and 2006 candidate Harold Ford Jr. I believe him to be unlikely, as he has said he is not considering to oppose Alexander. Another name touted often is Governor Phil Bredesen. Although he is a bit more likely, I don't see this happening either. Congressman Lincoln Davis could be a possible candidate for the Dems, as could Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell, who will not run for another term this year. Still another possible name is State Senator Rosalind Kurita, who attempted a go in 2006, only to back away because she couldn't compete with Ford.
With Fred Thompson now being a likely candidate for President, he is in good position to win the Republican nomination. That being the case, his coattails would be huge for the Tennessee GOP, and Alexander would likely be re-elected in a landslide. If the opposite would happen, and Fred is not the GOP nominee for President (doesn't seem likely that this is the case), Alexander would likely still win re-election.
Go ahead and chalk up this one for the GOP as all things stand now!
TENNESSEE ~ Governor 2010
As is the case in Pennsylvania, current Democratic Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen will be forced to retire under term limits. If Bredesen would be a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008 against Alexander and win (not likely at this point), current State Senate Speaker and Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey, a Republican, would become Governor as far as I know. At this time, it doesn't look like Ramsey will be a candidate for Governor in 2010. In that case, a wide-open race will be in the picture.
On the Republican side, a very interesting race seems to be playing out. Former U.S. Senator Bill Frist and Congressman Zach Wamp are both reportedly very interested in the race.
POTENTIAL FRIST CANDIDACY
Race42008.com
Gene Patterson
Nashville Post
Chattanooga Times Free Press
Save The GOP
Nashville Tennessean
POTENTIAL WAMP CANDIDACY
WATE-TV Knoxville, Tenn.
WATE-TV Story 2
WRCB-TV Chattanooga, Tenn.
TenneSpeak
Associated Press
Zach Wamp News
Chattanooga Times Free Press
If these two candidates both enter the race, it would make for a thrilling primary that would likely be watched nationwide. Other names being touted are headed by Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam. Lesser-known names could drop out if Frist and Wamp were to gain traction.
For the Dems, two common names being floated are Congressman Lincoln Davis and Nashville Mayor Bill Percell. Lesser names include State Representative Kim McMillan and state Economic and Community Development Commissioner Matt Kisber. Of course, the name of Harold Ford, Jr. again pops up, and he could be a possible candidate this time. Personally, I think Lincoln Davis will run and is in good position to be the Dems' nominee.
Let me handicap this one. For the GOP, I say both Frist and Wamp run. Blackburn and Haslam may consider the race, but at least one of them will likely drop out. It will go down to the wire between the former Senator and the Congressman from Chattanooga. Although something tells me that Frist would win, I can't make a real prediction. I met Wamp on Saturday at the "Draft Thompson Rally" in Cookeville, and he would be a very strong and deserving candidate. Personally, I think I would prefer to support Wamp in the primary.
For the Dems, I say Lincoln Davis is the nominee. In the general election, either Frist or Wamp should have the edge. Although Tennessee is still home to a lot of Democrats, the state is conservative, and is adjusting its vote as such. If all incumbents decided to retire at once, the GOP would likely have a large amount of pickups in Tennessee.
Another place to go for more on this race is Volunteer Voters.
I say the GOP is the early favorite in this race, and it will be one of the races to most look forward to in the next couple of election cycles.
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