Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Phils' Clubhouse Prank Turns into Overnight YouTube Sensation!
It looks like the 2007 National League East Champs (and my team) are ready for 2008!
Philadelphia Phillies' veteran pitcher Brett Myers managed to get the whole clubhouse, managers, and the Philadelphia press into duping second-year Phils' pitcher Kyle Kendrick into believing he was traded to a Japanese team.
The elaborate practical joke only started in the clubhouse, but became an overnight internet sensation.
It looks like my team is ready to go for '08! Ready to defend the NL East crown, and take it even further!
Philadelphia ComcastSportsNet
Philadelphia Inquirer
Cleveland Dealer
FOXNews
MSNBC
Article giving kudos to Phils on prank as good for the sport during a time when steroid scandals are hurting it.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
TRAGEDY IN THE SOUTH
SUPER TUESDAY CATASTROPHE!
A house stands near Castilian Springs, while neighboring houses in the back are gone.
TROUSDALE COUNTY, TENNESSEE
The glow could be seen in all surrounding counties, and for miles when the Columbia Gulf natural gas pumping station caught fire after taking a direct hit from the tornado. The flames shot as much as 500 feet in the air in the fire.
The remains of the Columbia Gulf facility, near Hartsville, after the tornado and fire caused severe damage.
MACON COUNTY, TENNESSEE
Houses near Lafayette, Tennessee, lie in ruin after a direct hit by the tornado, measured at 3/4 of a mile wide. The tornado stayed on the ground for 51 miles after passing Nashville.
A house in Macon County after Tuesday night's tornado.
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE
The Sears at the Hickory Hill Mall in Memphis suffered serious damage. The mall itself was closed because of substantial damage.
This Caterpillar plant in Memphis sustained severe damage.
The remains of a warehouse in Memphis.
JACKSON, TENNESSEE
This Walgreens near Union University shows signs of heavy damage.
A BancorpSouth branch and an Arby's restaurant with Union University in the background.
Another view of the BancorpSouth branch.
A Jackson church sustained haevy damage.
A view of the destroyed dorms at Union.
Another view of the devastated dorms.
Yet another view of the dorms.
And yet another view.
Cars were strewn around the campus.
One of Union's largest buildings sustained heavy roof damage.
Images are courtesy of the Tennessean, Commercial Appeal, and the Jackson Sun.
REFERENCE LINKS
Wikipedia article on the "2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak"
ARTICLES
Associated Press
CNN
MSNBC
Memphis, Tenn., Commercial Appeal
Commercial Appeal Special Section
Nashville, Tenn., Tennessean
Tennessean Special Section
WTVF-TV, Nashville, Tenn., Special Section
WSMV-TV, Nashville, Tenn., Special Section
WMC-TV, Memphis, Tenn., Special Section
Jackson, Tenn., Sun - Special Section
Gallatin, Tenn., News-Examiner (Courtesy of The Tennessean)
Clarksville, Tenn., Leaf-Chronicle
Little Rock, Ark., Democrat-Gazette
Birmingham, Ala., News
Bowling Green, Ky., Daily News
VIDEO
MSNBC- Supercell took region by suprise
CNN Video Coverage
Tennessean Video Coverage
WSMV-TV, Nashville, Tenn., Video
PHOTO GALLERIES
Tennessean Audio Photo Gallery
Tennessean Audio Photo Gallery with scenes from across the "Volunteer State".
Macon County, Tenn.
Sumner County, Tenn.
Fairview, Williamson County, Tenn. (The supercell thunderstorm dropped a tornado here, then it fizzled as the storm crossed Nashville. The supercell then dropped the deadly funnel after leaving Nashville, and went on its rampage through Sumner, Trousdale, and Macon Counties, before causing choas in a section of south-central Kentucky.)
Jackson, Tenn.
Columbia Gulf Natural Gas pumping station fire, Trousdale County, Tenn.
Union University tornado photos
Commercial Appeal slide show
Commercial Appeal slide show II
Clean-up photos from the Little Rock, Ark. Democrat-Gazette
Jackson, Tenn. Sun's special coverage of the storms, including photo galleries
Death Toll Continues To Rise In Deadliest U.S. Tornado Outbreak In 23 Years. Homes, Universities, Shopping Malls, Natural Gas Pumping Stations Among The Devastated Buildings. President Bush To Visit Damaged Areas Friday.
Tuesday was supposed to be a day dominated by the results of the Super Tuesday primaries, news of how the U.S. Presidential race is shaping up.
However, something much more darker and deadly quickly grabbed its place in the minds of America.
The deadliest severe weather outbreak in 23 years slammed America's Southern and Midwest states, killing at least 55 and injuring over 300. The storms destroyed houses, retirement homes, post offices, a shopping mall, and a natural gas pumping station, among other places.
The hardest hit areas were: Aiken, Arkansas; Memphis, Jackson, Hardin County, Williamson County, Sumner County, and Macon County, all in Tennessee; and communities in northern Alabama and south-central Kentucky.
Probably the most blessed area of the night was metro Nashville, Tennessee. A deadly tornado struck in an area to the southwest, around Fairview in Williamson County. The storm's funnel pulled back up as it approached the city of Nashville. The supercell continued to cross over the city, and dropped its funnel again after passing over Nashville's Davidson County. That funnel stayed on the ground for 51 miles, passing through Sumner, Macon, and Trousdale counties in Tennessee, and continuing on through Allen County, Kentucky. That tornado alone killed at least 27 people.
Below is a photo essay of the disaster. For stories and videos, click the links below. May God be with all who suffered great loss in these areas. They are certainly in America's thoughts and prayers! For those in these regions, I just want to encourage you all to keep the faith! You will bounce back, swiftly and better than before, because you have faith in the Almighty above, and a strong Puritian work-ethic based on your faith. We stand with you as you try your hardest to recover.
Outbreak death toll
State
Total
County
Countytotal
Arkansas 13
Baxter 1
Conway 2
Izard 2
Pope 4
Stone 1
Van Buren 3
Kentucky 7
Allen 4
Muhlenberg 3
Tennessee 33
Fayette 1
Hardin 3
Macon 14
Madison 2
Shelby 3
Sumner 7
Trousdale 3
Totals
59
All confirmed deaths are tornado-related
Tolls are from Wikipedia
Tennessee's death tolls by county as of Wednesday night, Feb. 6, 2008.
SUMNER COUNTY, TENNESSEE
The historic Wynnewood site in Castilian Springs, a hard-hit area.
The remains of the Castilian Springs post office were blown across the street from where it once stood.
Postal workers try to recover items from the demolished Castilian Springs post office.
Debris shrewn across a Castilian Springs highway.
A house stands near Castilian Springs, while neighboring houses in the back are gone.
TROUSDALE COUNTY, TENNESSEE
The glow could be seen in all surrounding counties, and for miles when the Columbia Gulf natural gas pumping station caught fire after taking a direct hit from the tornado. The flames shot as much as 500 feet in the air in the fire.
The remains of the Columbia Gulf facility, near Hartsville, after the tornado and fire caused severe damage.
MACON COUNTY, TENNESSEE
Houses near Lafayette, Tennessee, lie in ruin after a direct hit by the tornado, measured at 3/4 of a mile wide. The tornado stayed on the ground for 51 miles after passing Nashville.
The remains of the F&M Furniture Manufacturing Company in Lafayette.
An overview of the F&M destruction.
Yet another image of F&M.
A house in Macon County after Tuesday night's tornado.
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE
The Sears at the Hickory Hill Mall in Memphis suffered serious damage. The mall itself was closed because of substantial damage.
This Caterpillar plant in Memphis sustained severe damage.
The remains of a warehouse in Memphis.
JACKSON, TENNESSEE
This Walgreens near Union University shows signs of heavy damage.
A BancorpSouth branch and an Arby's restaurant with Union University in the background.
Another view of the BancorpSouth branch.
A Jackson church sustained haevy damage.
A view of the destroyed dorms at Union.
Another view of the devastated dorms.
Yet another view of the dorms.
And yet another view.
Cars were strewn around the campus.
One of Union's largest buildings sustained heavy roof damage.
Images are courtesy of the Tennessean, Commercial Appeal, and the Jackson Sun.
REFERENCE LINKS
Wikipedia article on the "2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak"
ARTICLES
Associated Press
CNN
MSNBC
Memphis, Tenn., Commercial Appeal
Commercial Appeal Special Section
Nashville, Tenn., Tennessean
Tennessean Special Section
WTVF-TV, Nashville, Tenn., Special Section
WSMV-TV, Nashville, Tenn., Special Section
WMC-TV, Memphis, Tenn., Special Section
Jackson, Tenn., Sun - Special Section
Gallatin, Tenn., News-Examiner (Courtesy of The Tennessean)
Clarksville, Tenn., Leaf-Chronicle
Little Rock, Ark., Democrat-Gazette
Birmingham, Ala., News
Bowling Green, Ky., Daily News
VIDEO
MSNBC- Supercell took region by suprise
CNN Video Coverage
Tennessean Video Coverage
WSMV-TV, Nashville, Tenn., Video
PHOTO GALLERIES
Tennessean Audio Photo Gallery
Tennessean Audio Photo Gallery with scenes from across the "Volunteer State".
Macon County, Tenn.
Sumner County, Tenn.
Fairview, Williamson County, Tenn. (The supercell thunderstorm dropped a tornado here, then it fizzled as the storm crossed Nashville. The supercell then dropped the deadly funnel after leaving Nashville, and went on its rampage through Sumner, Trousdale, and Macon Counties, before causing choas in a section of south-central Kentucky.)
Jackson, Tenn.
Columbia Gulf Natural Gas pumping station fire, Trousdale County, Tenn.
Union University tornado photos
Commercial Appeal slide show
Commercial Appeal slide show II
Clean-up photos from the Little Rock, Ark. Democrat-Gazette
Jackson, Tenn. Sun's special coverage of the storms, including photo galleries
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
DEVELOPING WEATHER STORY
FEBRUARY SEVERE WEATHER BLASTS THROUGH MIDWEST, MIDSOUTH; AT LEAST 23 REPORTED DEAD, OVER 100 INJURED.
Springlike severe thunderstorms, many including tornadoes, blew through a large swath of the Midsouth Tuesday night, and is continuing to threaten portions of the region.
At least 23 are confirmed dead at this time, and over 100 are injured across Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and other neighboring states in a storm system bizarre for this time of year.
Seven of those deaths are in northern Arkansas, and at least six others died across the state. Widespread damage is reported across that state.
Tennessee is another very hard-hit state. A tornadic thunderstorm blew through the metropolitian Memphis area during the early evening. It destroyed a warehouse building, damaged a Caterpillar plant, and caused serious damage to the Hickory Ridge Mall, where a wall and the roof of a Sears store were heavily damaged. At least one fatility has been reported at Hickory Ridge. A hangar at Memphis International Airport that was occupied by the National Guard had its roof torn off. FedEx Corp. reported damage to some of its facilities at the airport in its hometown.
From there the storm followed Interstate 40 to Jackson, Tenn., where widespread damage was reported. Dorm buildings at Union University were reduced to rubble, trapping at least nine and injuring others. Classes at Union will reportedly be cancelled for two weeks to deal with the damage. At least 50 people were trapped in the damaged Jackson Oaks retirement home. Other damage was reported, as well, across West Tennessee, where at least four fatalities occured. Three other deaths were reported elsewhere in the Volunteer State.
The storms paraded across West and Middle Tennessee, and wreaked havoc in the areas around Nashville during the early night hours. The Columbia Natural Gas facility in Hartsville, Trousdale County, was slammed by a reported tornado, setting it on fire and throwing flames up to 500 feet into the air. The light from the fire was seen in all surrounding counties.
In Kentucky, three were reportedly killed when storms blasted a mobile home park in Muhlenberg County.
The storms interfered with Super Tuesday voting, as Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Tennessee were all holding their Presidential primaries. Presidential candidates Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, and Hillary Clinton, a previous Arkansas First Lady, all expressed condolances to those who have been affected by Tuesday's serious weather condition.
This is a developing story, as tornadic thunderstorms are still pushing through a stretch of the country from Ohio, through Middle Tennessee, and into Mississippi.
Memphis Commercial Appeal
Nashville Tennessean
Jackson, Tenn., Sun
Little Rock, Ark., Democrat-Gazette
CNN
Jackson, Tenn., photos
Middle Tennessee photos
Account of the fire at the Hartsville, Tenn., natural gas facility
Springlike severe thunderstorms, many including tornadoes, blew through a large swath of the Midsouth Tuesday night, and is continuing to threaten portions of the region.
At least 23 are confirmed dead at this time, and over 100 are injured across Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and other neighboring states in a storm system bizarre for this time of year.
Seven of those deaths are in northern Arkansas, and at least six others died across the state. Widespread damage is reported across that state.
Tennessee is another very hard-hit state. A tornadic thunderstorm blew through the metropolitian Memphis area during the early evening. It destroyed a warehouse building, damaged a Caterpillar plant, and caused serious damage to the Hickory Ridge Mall, where a wall and the roof of a Sears store were heavily damaged. At least one fatility has been reported at Hickory Ridge. A hangar at Memphis International Airport that was occupied by the National Guard had its roof torn off. FedEx Corp. reported damage to some of its facilities at the airport in its hometown.
From there the storm followed Interstate 40 to Jackson, Tenn., where widespread damage was reported. Dorm buildings at Union University were reduced to rubble, trapping at least nine and injuring others. Classes at Union will reportedly be cancelled for two weeks to deal with the damage. At least 50 people were trapped in the damaged Jackson Oaks retirement home. Other damage was reported, as well, across West Tennessee, where at least four fatalities occured. Three other deaths were reported elsewhere in the Volunteer State.
The storms paraded across West and Middle Tennessee, and wreaked havoc in the areas around Nashville during the early night hours. The Columbia Natural Gas facility in Hartsville, Trousdale County, was slammed by a reported tornado, setting it on fire and throwing flames up to 500 feet into the air. The light from the fire was seen in all surrounding counties.
In Kentucky, three were reportedly killed when storms blasted a mobile home park in Muhlenberg County.
The storms interfered with Super Tuesday voting, as Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Tennessee were all holding their Presidential primaries. Presidential candidates Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, and Hillary Clinton, a previous Arkansas First Lady, all expressed condolances to those who have been affected by Tuesday's serious weather condition.
This is a developing story, as tornadic thunderstorms are still pushing through a stretch of the country from Ohio, through Middle Tennessee, and into Mississippi.
Memphis Commercial Appeal
Nashville Tennessean
Jackson, Tenn., Sun
Little Rock, Ark., Democrat-Gazette
CNN
Jackson, Tenn., photos
Middle Tennessee photos
Account of the fire at the Hartsville, Tenn., natural gas facility
A M E R I C A C H O O S E S 2 0 0 8 - S U P E R T U E S D A Y
McCAIN, CLINTON WIN BIG ON COASTS; ROMNEY, OBAMA TAKE INTERIOR STATES; HUCKABEE DOES WELL IN SOUTH.
AM CST, Feb. 6
The bottom line of the results in Tuesday's nearly national primary can be found in the headline. This won't be an in-depth article. We'll just cover the facts here and leave the in-depth spin up to the press.
REPUBLICANS
Arizona Senator John McCain got pretty much all the wins he wanted tonight. There was no suprises for his states. A bigger suprise was how well Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did in the five states he won. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney did not have a disastrous night either, but just barely missed in important opportunities such as Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Delaware, and it looks like California.
STATES WON - WTA OR SPLIT - IF WTA, # OF DEL.
McCAIN
Arizona - WTA - 53
California - Split
Connecticut - WTA - 30
Delaware - WTA - 18
Illinois - Split
Missouri - WTA - 58
New Jersey - WTA - 52
New York - WTA - 101
Oklahoma - Split
ROMNEY
Colorado - Split
Massachusetts - Split
Minnesota - Split
Montana - Split
North Dakota - Split
Utah - WTA - 36
HUCKABEE
Alabama - Split
Arkansas - Split
Georgia - Split
Tennessee - Split
West Virginia - WTA - 18
STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Alaska
RESULTS
AL: Huckabee-41%, McCain-37%, Romney-18%, Paul-3% 99% of Precincts
AK: STILL TO REPORT
AZ: McCain-47, Romney-34, Huckabee-9, Paul-5 72%
AR: Huckabee-61, McCain-20, Romney-13, Paul-5 85%
CA: McCain-44, Romney-26, Huckabee-12, Paul-4 29%
CO: Romney-60, McCain-19, Huckabee-13, Paul-8 73%
CT: McCain-52, Romney-33, Huckabee-7, Paul-4 99%
DE:McCain-45, Romney-33, Huckabee-15, Paul-4 100%
GA: Huckabee-34, McCain-32, Romney-30, Paul-3 98%
IL: McCain-47, Romney-29, Huckabee-17, Paul-5 97%
MA: Romney-51, McCain-41, Huckabee-4, Paul-3 95%
MN: Romney-42, McCain-22, Huckabee-20, Paul-15 82%
MO: McCain-33, Huckabee-32, Romney-29, Paul-4 99%
MT: Romney-38, Paul-25, McCain-22, Huckabee-15 100%
NJ: McCain-55, Romney-28, Huckabee-8, Paul-5 98%
NY: McCain-51, Romney-28, Huckabee-11, Paul-7 99%
ND: Romney-36, McCain-23, Paul-21, Huckabee-20 100%
OK: McCain-37, Huckabee-33, Romney-25, Paul-3 100%
TN: Huckabee-34, McCain-32, Romney-24, Paul-6 100%
UT: Romney-90, McCain-5, Paul-3, Huckabee-2 99%
WV: Huckabee-52, Romney-47, McCain-1, Paul-0 100%
AM CST, Feb. 6
The bottom line of the results in Tuesday's nearly national primary can be found in the headline. This won't be an in-depth article. We'll just cover the facts here and leave the in-depth spin up to the press.
REPUBLICANS
Arizona Senator John McCain got pretty much all the wins he wanted tonight. There was no suprises for his states. A bigger suprise was how well Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did in the five states he won. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney did not have a disastrous night either, but just barely missed in important opportunities such as Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Delaware, and it looks like California.
STATES WON - WTA OR SPLIT - IF WTA, # OF DEL.
McCAIN
Arizona - WTA - 53
California - Split
Connecticut - WTA - 30
Delaware - WTA - 18
Illinois - Split
Missouri - WTA - 58
New Jersey - WTA - 52
New York - WTA - 101
Oklahoma - Split
ROMNEY
Colorado - Split
Massachusetts - Split
Minnesota - Split
Montana - Split
North Dakota - Split
Utah - WTA - 36
HUCKABEE
Alabama - Split
Arkansas - Split
Georgia - Split
Tennessee - Split
West Virginia - WTA - 18
STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Alaska
RESULTS
AL: Huckabee-41%, McCain-37%, Romney-18%, Paul-3% 99% of Precincts
AK: STILL TO REPORT
AZ: McCain-47, Romney-34, Huckabee-9, Paul-5 72%
AR: Huckabee-61, McCain-20, Romney-13, Paul-5 85%
CA: McCain-44, Romney-26, Huckabee-12, Paul-4 29%
CO: Romney-60, McCain-19, Huckabee-13, Paul-8 73%
CT: McCain-52, Romney-33, Huckabee-7, Paul-4 99%
DE:McCain-45, Romney-33, Huckabee-15, Paul-4 100%
GA: Huckabee-34, McCain-32, Romney-30, Paul-3 98%
IL: McCain-47, Romney-29, Huckabee-17, Paul-5 97%
MA: Romney-51, McCain-41, Huckabee-4, Paul-3 95%
MN: Romney-42, McCain-22, Huckabee-20, Paul-15 82%
MO: McCain-33, Huckabee-32, Romney-29, Paul-4 99%
MT: Romney-38, Paul-25, McCain-22, Huckabee-15 100%
NJ: McCain-55, Romney-28, Huckabee-8, Paul-5 98%
NY: McCain-51, Romney-28, Huckabee-11, Paul-7 99%
ND: Romney-36, McCain-23, Paul-21, Huckabee-20 100%
OK: McCain-37, Huckabee-33, Romney-25, Paul-3 100%
TN: Huckabee-34, McCain-32, Romney-24, Paul-6 100%
UT: Romney-90, McCain-5, Paul-3, Huckabee-2 99%
WV: Huckabee-52, Romney-47, McCain-1, Paul-0 100%
A M E R I C A C H O O S E S 2 0 0 8 - S U P E R T U E S D A Y
HUCKABEE WINS WEST VIRGINIA AFTER DEAL WITH McCAIN SUPPORTERS, 23 OTHER STATES STILL VOTING.
3:57 PM CST
Happy Super Tuesday to all the readers of the Conservative Statesman!
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee took a narrow victory in the West Virginia GOP Convention over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
With 100 percent of precincts in, Huckabee registered 52 percent of the vote, while Romney got 47 percent. Arizona Senator John McCain only got a single percent of the vote, and that has raised the fact that McCain and Huckabee's backers joined forces in the second round of balloting.
An earlier first round showed Romney well ahead and near the 50 percent mark needed to win. McCain and Texas Congressman Ron Paul were well behind. Paul, being in fourth place, was dropped after the first round. McCain's camp, seeing that they were so far behind in the vote, reportedly encouraged their supporters to back Huckabee, keeping Romney from a win that would boost momentum. Appearently, that is exactly what happened.
Now, 23 other states are voting for their choices. I'll try to post here when I can throughout the evening. Now, go out there and exercise your citizenship muscles and vote!
A blogger's comments on a likely McCain-Huckabee deal in the Mountaineer State
CNN Story On West Virginia Results
CNN's State-By-State Guide To Super Tuesday
CNN Election Center - LIVE Super Tuesday Returns
3:57 PM CST
Happy Super Tuesday to all the readers of the Conservative Statesman!
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee took a narrow victory in the West Virginia GOP Convention over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
With 100 percent of precincts in, Huckabee registered 52 percent of the vote, while Romney got 47 percent. Arizona Senator John McCain only got a single percent of the vote, and that has raised the fact that McCain and Huckabee's backers joined forces in the second round of balloting.
An earlier first round showed Romney well ahead and near the 50 percent mark needed to win. McCain and Texas Congressman Ron Paul were well behind. Paul, being in fourth place, was dropped after the first round. McCain's camp, seeing that they were so far behind in the vote, reportedly encouraged their supporters to back Huckabee, keeping Romney from a win that would boost momentum. Appearently, that is exactly what happened.
Now, 23 other states are voting for their choices. I'll try to post here when I can throughout the evening. Now, go out there and exercise your citizenship muscles and vote!
A blogger's comments on a likely McCain-Huckabee deal in the Mountaineer State
CNN Story On West Virginia Results
CNN's State-By-State Guide To Super Tuesday
CNN Election Center - LIVE Super Tuesday Returns
Saturday, February 2, 2008
A M E R I C A C H O O S E S 2 0 0 8 - M A I N E
ROMNEY TAKES MAINE GOP CAUCUS BY A LANDSLIDE!
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the Maine GOP Presidential caucus in a cakewalk Saturday, blasting by Arizona Senator, and presumed frontrunner, John McCain and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
With 68 percent of precincts reporting, Romney held 52 percent of the vote (which are actually state delegates), while McCain was holding onto 21 percent, and Paul was winning 19 percent. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee only had 6 percent of the vote. The Undecided column and several withdrawn candidates held the rest. Eighteen delegates were at stake, and they had not been apportioned by the writing of this article.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the Maine GOP Presidential caucus in a cakewalk Saturday, blasting by Arizona Senator, and presumed frontrunner, John McCain and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
With 68 percent of precincts reporting, Romney held 52 percent of the vote (which are actually state delegates), while McCain was holding onto 21 percent, and Paul was winning 19 percent. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee only had 6 percent of the vote. The Undecided column and several withdrawn candidates held the rest. Eighteen delegates were at stake, and they had not been apportioned by the writing of this article.
Friday, February 1, 2008
MY SUPER TUESDAY OUTLOOK
As I said after Florida, I am posting my outlook on Tsunami Tuesday coming up in just a few short days. I will mostly look into the GOP, since the Dems are really gonna split votes, and it will be hard to tell where they will go. However, I do think Obama will have a good night. Now for the Republicans.
WHERE WE STAND GOING IN:
Arizona Senator John McCain has momentum pushing him along right now. However, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney can not be counted out and finished, regardless of if he loses California or Illinois. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is finished. He is no longer a viable candidate. He will take a few Southern states, but nothing more. Past Super Tuesday, it will continue to be a fight between Romney and McCain over who will represent the GOP in November.
HOW THE STATES LOOK TO SHIFT:
There will be 22 states holding GOP caucuses and primaries on Tuesday. The key is over who will win the winner-take-all states and the states that divide their delegates. Let's go state-by-state:
ROMNEY
McCAIN
HUCKABEE
TOSS-UP
ALABAMA
This state in the middle of Dixie should be a natural Huckabee state. However, McCain is polling strong here as well. A recent delegate projection shows all three major candidates receiving some of the 45 delegates out of Alabama. I predict a McCain win with delegates going to all three.
ALASKA
There is no polling data available for the caucus in Alaska, so I'll have to guess on this one. I say Romney takes all 26 delegates. I base that on an educated hunch.
ARIZONA
This is a winner-take-all primary, and it will be McCain in a landslide, taking all 50 delegates up for grabs.
ARKANSAS
Umm...I guess Huckabee should take the state he was born in and was governor of for about a decade. The wild card is that this state gives delegates to candidates receiving 20 percent of the vote or more. Some of the state's 31 delegates will probably go to McCain, as well. We'll have to see if Romney gets over 20 percent of the vote himself. That's doubtful, however.
CALIFORNIA
Here's the big prize! A total of 170 delegates to split up by district. Both McCain and Romney are making a strong push for the Golden State. Romney is intending to spend over $1 million in ads here alone. A Rasmussen poll released on the day of the Florida primary showed McCain with a four-point lead. Things have changed since then, but both leading candidates will receive delegates here. The question is, how many? I say McCain wins by eight points.
COLORADO
This will be Romney country! I am not sure if the state's 43 delegates are split or not in the caucus. I don't believe they are.
CONNECTICUT
McCain should have a problem winning the state's 27 delegates in the winner-take-all primary.
DELAWARE
Some expect this to be a McCain state, but some signs point to a good shot for Romney here. It is a winner-take-all contest for the 18 delegates. I will put it in the toss-up column.
GEORGIA
Many are writing off this state as Huckabee's. To that I say, not so fast! Three recent polls were split, with each candidate winning the state. Romney, Huckabee, and McCain all are in a position to win the state. Contrary to the pundits, however, Romney and McCain may be in the best position, which would deal a painful blow to Huckabee. Making things more interesting, the state's 69 delegates are split by district. All three candidates may get delegates. I can't give any one candidate the advantage right now.
ILLINOIS
McCain should win this big, Midwestern state. However, this is another contest that has delegates to be divided, 57 in all. Romney is in a position where he could take some delegates here.
KANSAS
This state is up-for-grabs after the depature several months ago of the state's junior senator, Sam Brownback. Any one of the three candidates could take this caucus and its 39 delegates. For fun I'll make a pick, and I'll go with Romney.
MASSACHUSETTS
This should be an easy one to put in the column of the hometown boy, Romney. The Bay State splits up their 40 delegates if another candidate gets 15 percent of the vote, so there is a chance McCain could pick up a few.
MINNESOTA
This caucus, and its 41 delegates should end up in McCain's column. I am not sure if they divide delegates at all. Romney does not have much of a shot in taking this state.
MISSOURI
The Show-Me State is another winner-take-all contest with 58 delegates. It appears we have no clear winner for this one. You could make the case for any one of the three candidates to win this one. I'm not even gonna pick one here.
MONTANA
This caucus has 25 delegates tied to it, and it should be an easy one for Romney. I believe it's winner-take-all.
NEW JERSEY
A winner-take-all primary, and it's 52 delegates are pretty much McCain's.
NEW YORK
Another winner-take-all primary with 87 delegates. It's safe to say this is McCain country!
NORTH DAKOTA
This is a caucus with 23 delegates tied to it, and it should be safe for Romney. It is winner-take-all, I believe.
OKLAHOMA
This state's primary gives out 38 delegates, and it's pretty much a toss-up between McCain and Huckabee. The state splits its delegates, so both candidates will probably end up holding some. There is an outside chance Romney may pick up a couple.
TENNESSEE
This was to be Former Senator Fred Thompson's state. Since early voting was going on when he dropped out, he may still register a fairly significant portion of the vote from his homestate. Out of those left, it is a toss-up. McCain and Huckabee are polling well here, but a poll out Monday showed Romney competing well. Many FredHeads have found Romney their last conservative choice, and are now backing him, which could help him in the Volunteer State. The primary splits its 55 delegates, so more than one candidate could benefit. Although I am from Tennessee, I do not even want to make a prediction.
UTAH
Uhh, let's see-It is a Mormon state, and Romney is a Mormon. I think a little common sense can go a long way here. To back it up, Mitt was up by a whopping 75 points in a poll released mid-January. It looks like it would be a safe call to put Utah's 36 delegates in the Romney column. This is a winner-take-all primary, by the way.
WEST VIRGINIA
This state may be a toss-up, but signs point to an advantage for Romney. It is a primary that splits the 30 delegates it puts out. I feel comfortable putting it in Mitt's column.
McCAIN:
Arizona - 50
Connecticut - 27
Illinois - 57 (splits delegates)
Minnesota - 41
New Jersey - 52
New York - 87
ROMNEY:
Alaska - 26
Colorado - 43
Massachusetts - 40 (splits delegates P15%)
Montana - 25
North Dakota - 23
Utah - 36
West Virginia - 30 (splits delegates)
HUCKABEE:
Arkansas - 31 (splits delegates P20%)
UP FOR GRABS:
Alabama - 45 (splits delegates)
California - 170 (splits delegates)
Delaware - 18
Georgia - 69 (splits delegates)
Kansas - 39
Missouri - 58
Oklahoma - 38 (splits delegates)
Tennessee - 55 (splits delegates)
Bottom Line: McCain will do well, but I think it's very thinkable that Romney will come off with 350-400 delegates, putting him in a strong situation to take some momentum into later states. I don't think things will be settled for the GOP on Tuesday!
GOOD LINKS:
New York Times Super Tuesday graphic
Another bloggers' prediction
Dave Leip's Atlas map of polls (find for yourself how things are going)
WHERE WE STAND GOING IN:
Arizona Senator John McCain has momentum pushing him along right now. However, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney can not be counted out and finished, regardless of if he loses California or Illinois. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is finished. He is no longer a viable candidate. He will take a few Southern states, but nothing more. Past Super Tuesday, it will continue to be a fight between Romney and McCain over who will represent the GOP in November.
HOW THE STATES LOOK TO SHIFT:
There will be 22 states holding GOP caucuses and primaries on Tuesday. The key is over who will win the winner-take-all states and the states that divide their delegates. Let's go state-by-state:
ROMNEY
McCAIN
HUCKABEE
TOSS-UP
ALABAMA
This state in the middle of Dixie should be a natural Huckabee state. However, McCain is polling strong here as well. A recent delegate projection shows all three major candidates receiving some of the 45 delegates out of Alabama. I predict a McCain win with delegates going to all three.
ALASKA
There is no polling data available for the caucus in Alaska, so I'll have to guess on this one. I say Romney takes all 26 delegates. I base that on an educated hunch.
ARIZONA
This is a winner-take-all primary, and it will be McCain in a landslide, taking all 50 delegates up for grabs.
ARKANSAS
Umm...I guess Huckabee should take the state he was born in and was governor of for about a decade. The wild card is that this state gives delegates to candidates receiving 20 percent of the vote or more. Some of the state's 31 delegates will probably go to McCain, as well. We'll have to see if Romney gets over 20 percent of the vote himself. That's doubtful, however.
CALIFORNIA
Here's the big prize! A total of 170 delegates to split up by district. Both McCain and Romney are making a strong push for the Golden State. Romney is intending to spend over $1 million in ads here alone. A Rasmussen poll released on the day of the Florida primary showed McCain with a four-point lead. Things have changed since then, but both leading candidates will receive delegates here. The question is, how many? I say McCain wins by eight points.
COLORADO
This will be Romney country! I am not sure if the state's 43 delegates are split or not in the caucus. I don't believe they are.
CONNECTICUT
McCain should have a problem winning the state's 27 delegates in the winner-take-all primary.
DELAWARE
Some expect this to be a McCain state, but some signs point to a good shot for Romney here. It is a winner-take-all contest for the 18 delegates. I will put it in the toss-up column.
GEORGIA
Many are writing off this state as Huckabee's. To that I say, not so fast! Three recent polls were split, with each candidate winning the state. Romney, Huckabee, and McCain all are in a position to win the state. Contrary to the pundits, however, Romney and McCain may be in the best position, which would deal a painful blow to Huckabee. Making things more interesting, the state's 69 delegates are split by district. All three candidates may get delegates. I can't give any one candidate the advantage right now.
ILLINOIS
McCain should win this big, Midwestern state. However, this is another contest that has delegates to be divided, 57 in all. Romney is in a position where he could take some delegates here.
KANSAS
This state is up-for-grabs after the depature several months ago of the state's junior senator, Sam Brownback. Any one of the three candidates could take this caucus and its 39 delegates. For fun I'll make a pick, and I'll go with Romney.
MASSACHUSETTS
This should be an easy one to put in the column of the hometown boy, Romney. The Bay State splits up their 40 delegates if another candidate gets 15 percent of the vote, so there is a chance McCain could pick up a few.
MINNESOTA
This caucus, and its 41 delegates should end up in McCain's column. I am not sure if they divide delegates at all. Romney does not have much of a shot in taking this state.
MISSOURI
The Show-Me State is another winner-take-all contest with 58 delegates. It appears we have no clear winner for this one. You could make the case for any one of the three candidates to win this one. I'm not even gonna pick one here.
MONTANA
This caucus has 25 delegates tied to it, and it should be an easy one for Romney. I believe it's winner-take-all.
NEW JERSEY
A winner-take-all primary, and it's 52 delegates are pretty much McCain's.
NEW YORK
Another winner-take-all primary with 87 delegates. It's safe to say this is McCain country!
NORTH DAKOTA
This is a caucus with 23 delegates tied to it, and it should be safe for Romney. It is winner-take-all, I believe.
OKLAHOMA
This state's primary gives out 38 delegates, and it's pretty much a toss-up between McCain and Huckabee. The state splits its delegates, so both candidates will probably end up holding some. There is an outside chance Romney may pick up a couple.
TENNESSEE
This was to be Former Senator Fred Thompson's state. Since early voting was going on when he dropped out, he may still register a fairly significant portion of the vote from his homestate. Out of those left, it is a toss-up. McCain and Huckabee are polling well here, but a poll out Monday showed Romney competing well. Many FredHeads have found Romney their last conservative choice, and are now backing him, which could help him in the Volunteer State. The primary splits its 55 delegates, so more than one candidate could benefit. Although I am from Tennessee, I do not even want to make a prediction.
UTAH
Uhh, let's see-It is a Mormon state, and Romney is a Mormon. I think a little common sense can go a long way here. To back it up, Mitt was up by a whopping 75 points in a poll released mid-January. It looks like it would be a safe call to put Utah's 36 delegates in the Romney column. This is a winner-take-all primary, by the way.
WEST VIRGINIA
This state may be a toss-up, but signs point to an advantage for Romney. It is a primary that splits the 30 delegates it puts out. I feel comfortable putting it in Mitt's column.
McCAIN:
Arizona - 50
Connecticut - 27
Illinois - 57 (splits delegates)
Minnesota - 41
New Jersey - 52
New York - 87
ROMNEY:
Alaska - 26
Colorado - 43
Massachusetts - 40 (splits delegates P15%)
Montana - 25
North Dakota - 23
Utah - 36
West Virginia - 30 (splits delegates)
HUCKABEE:
Arkansas - 31 (splits delegates P20%)
UP FOR GRABS:
Alabama - 45 (splits delegates)
California - 170 (splits delegates)
Delaware - 18
Georgia - 69 (splits delegates)
Kansas - 39
Missouri - 58
Oklahoma - 38 (splits delegates)
Tennessee - 55 (splits delegates)
Bottom Line: McCain will do well, but I think it's very thinkable that Romney will come off with 350-400 delegates, putting him in a strong situation to take some momentum into later states. I don't think things will be settled for the GOP on Tuesday!
GOOD LINKS:
New York Times Super Tuesday graphic
Another bloggers' prediction
Dave Leip's Atlas map of polls (find for yourself how things are going)
SANTORUM ENDORSES ROMNEY
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has endorsed Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for the Presidency. I'm still hoping this great statesman will run for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2010, as rumors are suggesting. Another good reason to vote Mitt Romney!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)