MY SUPER TUESDAY OUTLOOK

As I said after Florida, I am posting my outlook on Tsunami Tuesday coming up in just a few short days. I will mostly look into the GOP, since the Dems are really gonna split votes, and it will be hard to tell where they will go. However, I do think Obama will have a good night. Now for the Republicans.

WHERE WE STAND GOING IN:
Arizona Senator John McCain has momentum pushing him along right now. However, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney can not be counted out and finished, regardless of if he loses California or Illinois. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is finished. He is no longer a viable candidate. He will take a few Southern states, but nothing more. Past Super Tuesday, it will continue to be a fight between Romney and McCain over who will represent the GOP in November.

HOW THE STATES LOOK TO SHIFT:
There will be 22 states holding GOP caucuses and primaries on Tuesday. The key is over who will win the winner-take-all states and the states that divide their delegates. Let's go state-by-state:

ROMNEY
McCAIN
HUCKABEE
TOSS-UP

ALABAMA
This state in the middle of Dixie should be a natural Huckabee state. However, McCain is polling strong here as well. A recent delegate projection shows all three major candidates receiving some of the 45 delegates out of Alabama. I predict a McCain win with delegates going to all three.

ALASKA
There is no polling data available for the caucus in Alaska, so I'll have to guess on this one. I say Romney takes all 26 delegates. I base that on an educated hunch.

ARIZONA
This is a winner-take-all primary, and it will be McCain in a landslide, taking all 50 delegates up for grabs.

ARKANSAS
Umm...I guess Huckabee should take the state he was born in and was governor of for about a decade. The wild card is that this state gives delegates to candidates receiving 20 percent of the vote or more. Some of the state's 31 delegates will probably go to McCain, as well. We'll have to see if Romney gets over 20 percent of the vote himself. That's doubtful, however.

CALIFORNIA
Here's the big prize! A total of 170 delegates to split up by district. Both McCain and Romney are making a strong push for the Golden State. Romney is intending to spend over $1 million in ads here alone. A Rasmussen poll released on the day of the Florida primary showed McCain with a four-point lead. Things have changed since then, but both leading candidates will receive delegates here. The question is, how many? I say McCain wins by eight points.

COLORADO
This will be Romney country! I am not sure if the state's 43 delegates are split or not in the caucus. I don't believe they are.

CONNECTICUT
McCain should have a problem winning the state's 27 delegates in the winner-take-all primary.

DELAWARE
Some expect this to be a McCain state, but some signs point to a good shot for Romney here. It is a winner-take-all contest for the 18 delegates. I will put it in the toss-up column.

GEORGIA
Many are writing off this state as Huckabee's. To that I say, not so fast! Three recent polls were split, with each candidate winning the state. Romney, Huckabee, and McCain all are in a position to win the state. Contrary to the pundits, however, Romney and McCain may be in the best position, which would deal a painful blow to Huckabee. Making things more interesting, the state's 69 delegates are split by district. All three candidates may get delegates. I can't give any one candidate the advantage right now.

ILLINOIS
McCain should win this big, Midwestern state. However, this is another contest that has delegates to be divided, 57 in all. Romney is in a position where he could take some delegates here.

KANSAS
This state is up-for-grabs after the depature several months ago of the state's junior senator, Sam Brownback. Any one of the three candidates could take this caucus and its 39 delegates. For fun I'll make a pick, and I'll go with Romney.

MASSACHUSETTS
This should be an easy one to put in the column of the hometown boy, Romney. The Bay State splits up their 40 delegates if another candidate gets 15 percent of the vote, so there is a chance McCain could pick up a few.

MINNESOTA
This caucus, and its 41 delegates should end up in McCain's column. I am not sure if they divide delegates at all. Romney does not have much of a shot in taking this state.

MISSOURI
The Show-Me State is another winner-take-all contest with 58 delegates. It appears we have no clear winner for this one. You could make the case for any one of the three candidates to win this one. I'm not even gonna pick one here.

MONTANA
This caucus has 25 delegates tied to it, and it should be an easy one for Romney. I believe it's winner-take-all.

NEW JERSEY
A winner-take-all primary, and it's 52 delegates are pretty much McCain's.

NEW YORK
Another winner-take-all primary with 87 delegates. It's safe to say this is McCain country!

NORTH DAKOTA
This is a caucus with 23 delegates tied to it, and it should be safe for Romney. It is winner-take-all, I believe.

OKLAHOMA
This state's primary gives out 38 delegates, and it's pretty much a toss-up between McCain and Huckabee. The state splits its delegates, so both candidates will probably end up holding some. There is an outside chance Romney may pick up a couple.

TENNESSEE
This was to be Former Senator Fred Thompson's state. Since early voting was going on when he dropped out, he may still register a fairly significant portion of the vote from his homestate. Out of those left, it is a toss-up. McCain and Huckabee are polling well here, but a poll out Monday showed Romney competing well. Many FredHeads have found Romney their last conservative choice, and are now backing him, which could help him in the Volunteer State. The primary splits its 55 delegates, so more than one candidate could benefit. Although I am from Tennessee, I do not even want to make a prediction.

UTAH
Uhh, let's see-It is a Mormon state, and Romney is a Mormon. I think a little common sense can go a long way here. To back it up, Mitt was up by a whopping 75 points in a poll released mid-January. It looks like it would be a safe call to put Utah's 36 delegates in the Romney column. This is a winner-take-all primary, by the way.

WEST VIRGINIA
This state may be a toss-up, but signs point to an advantage for Romney. It is a primary that splits the 30 delegates it puts out. I feel comfortable putting it in Mitt's column.


McCAIN:
Arizona - 50
Connecticut - 27
Illinois - 57 (splits delegates)
Minnesota - 41
New Jersey - 52
New York - 87

ROMNEY:
Alaska - 26
Colorado - 43
Massachusetts - 40 (splits delegates P15%)
Montana - 25
North Dakota - 23
Utah - 36
West Virginia - 30 (splits delegates)

HUCKABEE:
Arkansas - 31 (splits delegates P20%)

UP FOR GRABS:
Alabama - 45 (splits delegates)
California - 170 (splits delegates)
Delaware - 18
Georgia - 69 (splits delegates)
Kansas - 39
Missouri - 58
Oklahoma - 38 (splits delegates)
Tennessee - 55 (splits delegates)


Bottom Line: McCain will do well, but I think it's very thinkable that Romney will come off with 350-400 delegates, putting him in a strong situation to take some momentum into later states. I don't think things will be settled for the GOP on Tuesday!


GOOD LINKS:
New York Times Super Tuesday graphic
Another bloggers' prediction
Dave Leip's Atlas map of polls (find for yourself how things are going)