A MASSACHUSETTS MIRACLE?

BROWN-COAKLEY RACE IN THE BAY STATE COMING DOWN TO THE LAST HOURS AND LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST MAJOR POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE OF 2010.















by Jordan M. Iwanyszyn

Over recent weeks, a once little-followed campaign for the U.S. Senate in the leftist bastion of New England has taken the nation by storm.

The race is for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts that was held by Ted Kennedy for over four decades, and has seen Republican state senator Scott Brown surge into a tie or the lead in the campaign against Democratic state attorney general Martha Coakley.

Why am I saying all this for? Just about everyone it seems have already heard all this.

What cannot be stressed enough is the fact that this looks more and more likely to be the first major political tremor to shake the nation in this new year.

This race started to grab attention just about as the calendar turned from 2009 to '10. Polls coming out in late December into early January showed the margin of the lead by Coakley (as late as November at 31 percent) to quickly narrow and even evaporate. The first major poll that really started turning heads came from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling on January 9th that showed Brown up by one, and with a solid lead for independents. Every poll since that time has now showed either a very narrow Coakley lead withing the margin of error, a tie, or a Brown lead. Four of the five polls to be released over the weekend show Brown with a fairly or strong lead, most as high as seven to ten points. Now, even Democratic congressmen from the Bay State and Democrats in the White House are now criticizing Coakley and blaming her for running a lackluster campaign.

The truth is that Coakley has done just that. While Brown is running a smart, hard campaign with the energy of national conservative and tea party groups behind him, Coakley has run a lousy campaign. Democrats have signaled that they feel entitled to this seat, and Coakley really did not seriously campaign for the general election until January started.

At the same time, Brown has made some memorable and really good statements, while Coakley has committed some serious gaffes. In a recent debate, Brown had said that the seat he is running for is "...not the Kennedy seat, it is not the Democrat's seat. It is the peoples' seat." Brown has also been on-message and on-target in focusing on the socialist health care proposal currently in Washington and on national security issues, therefore, taking out positions that are appealing across party lines.

Meanwhile, Coakley criticized Brown for 'campaigning in the cold' at a recent Boston Bruins-Philadelphia Flyers hockey game at Boston's legendary Fenway Park. She has also criticized Brown for driving around in a red truck and claimed that famed former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling is a New York Yankees fan. Schilling is a vocal Brown supporter. She also made the claim that catholics should maybe give a second look at working in the emergency rooms at hospitals and not work there if they oppose abortion. These are just a few of the examples of Coakley getting off message and making pointless attacks.

The combination of the smart Brown campaign and a terrible Coakley campaign has resulted in independents and even Democrats turning out the lights on Coakley. Recent polling suggests that almost 60 percent of independents, and even as many as 30-35 percent of Democrats are backing Brown.

Now, many people watching this race, including numerous Democrats, are expecting a major Republican victory with Brown winning the seat. I am one of those expecting a Brown victory, and I will even pinpoint a specific winning margin. I think Brown will be the victor by four points.

A Brown victory will likely signal the death of this current government-run healthcare proposal as he is opposed to it, and the Democrats only have the upper hand by one vote. Also, it makes cap-and-trade much harder. It also signals that Democrats have a much harder time on their hands during this mid-term election year than we even thought a few weeks ago. For a Republican to be leading in a state that hasn't elected a senator from the GOP in nearly four decades sends a massive message that an enormous political earthquake is ready to shake the leftists in power this year.

This race also sends the message that the conservative tea party activists are not there to shake apart the GOP, like the media and leftist organizations are trying to portray. Brown is not a line-following conservative. He supports civil unions, supports Roe v. Wade as 'the law of the land', and takes some other positions that conservatives object to. However, tea party activists are in Massachusetts helping Brown, and conservative radio talk show hosts are excited about a Brown victory. Those that expect tea party supporters to 'tear the GOP apart' do not really understand what the tea party message is all about.

Lastly, Barack Obama was in Massachusetts over the weekend to rally for Coakley, and in the meanwhile spent time criticizing Brown and his pickup. He also campaigned for outgoing New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine and for Creigh Deeds, the candidate for governor in Virginia last year. Both of those races went the other way to Republicans Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell respectively. He continues to hurt his standing with every campaign he gets involved with and losing. If Brown wins tomorrow, he won't improve his standing.

It's about to get exciting!

Wikipedia article handicapping the race, including polls

Coakley calling Schilling a 'Yankees fan'

Boston Herald article on energy surrounding Brown's campaign

CNBC's Jim Cramer says stock market rally will come with Brown victory

Coakley attempts to tie Brown to Wall Street.....but uses a photo of the World Trade Center to do so.

The WTC ad is found appaling by former NYC Mayor Giuliani