LATE BREAKING UPDATES FROM THE IOWA CAUCUSES TONIGHT WILL BE POSTED HERE:
ALL TIMES CENTRAL
10:20 - Texas Sen. Ted Cruz takes the stage for victory remarks.
10:17 - As we start the delegate count in this long process this winter and spring, Iowa starts us off in a three-way dead heat. Preliminary delegate count totals broken down with Cruz at 8, Trump and Rubio at 7 apiece and Carson at 3.
10:06 - Review my prediction at the bottom of this post and see what you think.
9:52 - It is now 90% of caucus sites reporting on the Dem side, and we have a even-split. Clinton with 50% and Sanders 50%.
9:48 - Florida Sen. Marco Rubio just wraps up an enthusiastic speech to supporters in Des Moines.
9:30 - BREAKING: Republican candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has announced through Twitter that he will suspend his campaign for the Presidency.
9:25 - BREAKING: Fox News projects a Cruz victory, with Trump in 2nd and Rubio a close 3rd.
9:20 - Now 99% of precincts in, and Cruz at 28% and Trump and Rubio in a virtual tie with 24% and 23% respectively.
9:15 - As we wait for new votes, the general consensus by way of chatter is now this. Cruz put his eggs in the Iowa basket and he looks like he gets what he needed. Not a major boost, as this state was tailor-made for him. Trump seems to have underperformed if this holds, and talk already has him in a must-win situation in New Hampshire next week. Marco Rubio looks to be the big winner by dramatically overperforming, and now we can expect to see him drawing support away from Kasich, Christie and Bush in New Hampshire. Looking later in the month, The top three today have strength in South Carolina, and Sen. Tim Scott there is setting up to endorse Rubio tomorrow.
8:58 - BREAKING: Dem candidate Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor, is reportedly set to suspend his Presidential campaign tonight. That is no surprise, but the real story there is that the only younger Democratic candidate is dropping out. The party that tries to build an image of appealing to youth and looking to the future has two career politicians that are well into their 70s.
8:56 - Neil Cavuto on Fox Business coverage is reporting that "Marco Rubio could be the story of the night." I think that is an obvious answer.
8:53 - Total between the three contenders narrowing with 75% of precincts in. Cruz now at 28%, Trump at 25% and Rubio at 22%. Just six points separating 1st from 3rd!
8:46 - Narrowest of leads for Hillary Clinton on the Dem side. With 63% of precincts in, Clinton at 51% and Sanders at 49%.
8:38 - Now 47% of precincts in. Cruz still stuck at 29%, Trump at 25%, and Rubio nipping at his heels with 21%.
8:33 - Sudden surge of numbers coming in. Now 41% reporting, and Cruz still narrowly ahead with 29%, Trump 26% and Rubio at 20%, breaking into the 20%+ club. Carson in 4th at 10%.
8:31 - Here is one precinct that Rubio won in a blowout:
Urbandale-15 is a rout.
Rubio 106
Cruz 39
Trump 33
Carson 11
Kasich 10
Paul 5
Fiorina 5
Santorum 4
Jeb 4
Huckabee 2
8:22 - CNN now has an estimate at the Ankeny caucus with Rubio at 34%, Cruz at 28% and Trump 18%. Not indicative of the Hawkeye State as a whole, but Trump's weakness is surprising as it is a business conservative's area.
8:19 - Numbers continuing to come in. Now at 24% of precincts in, and Cruz still in 1st with 30%, Trump next at 27% and Rubio at 19%. Many larger caucus sites and urban areas still have yet to report. Watch these urban areas where there will be likely stronger support for Trump and Rubio.
8:01 - Now 7% of precincts in with Cruz at 30%, Trump 29% and Rubio 18%.
7:49 - Very, very early numbers in now. With 3% of precincts in, Cruz at 31%, Trump 30% and Rubio 16%. All others in single digits.
7:38 - CNN entrance poll showing 63% of GOP caucus-goers consider themselves evangelical. Among them, the vast majority split nearly identically between Cruz, Trump, Rubio with Cruz 2% ahead. Among non-evangelicals, Trump holds a decent lead with Rubio in 2nd. This has to be considered concerning and pretty alarming news at Cruz headquarters.
7:15 - Fox News entrance polls showing a tight race on the GOP caucus between Trump, Cruz and Rubio for first. Entrance polling on the Dem caucus showing a tight race between Clinton and Sanders. In other words, we have a free-for-all, just as we expected coming in this weekend.
7:10 - Personal prediction of the GOP race top 5 tonight
1) Cruz
2) Rubio
3) Trump
4) Carson
5) Paul
No comments:
Post a Comment